Marketing, Charts & Touring

The road to a first No. 1 isn’t getting shorter

Selin Yildiz

Selin Yildiz

— 2 min read
The road to a first No. 1 isn’t getting shorter
Tate McRae

Tate McRae’s “Housewife” debuted at No. 2 on the Hot 100 dated Oct. 31, behind Ella Langley’s “Choosin’ Texas.” It’s the best showing of her career as a lead artist. Her first Hot 100 entry, “You Broke Me First,” came in September 2020. Six years later, she’s still waiting for a No. 1 of her own.

Streaming can make a song huge overnight, so you might expect today’s stars to reach the top faster than ever. We went through every Billboard Hot 100 chart since 1958 to check. For 661 artists, we measured the time between their first entry as lead artist and their first No. 1.

This decade’s first-time No. 1 artists waited more than a year

Median weeks from first Hot 100 entry to first No. 1, by decade: 8 in the 1960s, 73 in the 1970s, 96 in the 1980s, 40 in the 1990s, 38 in the 2000s, 70 in the 2010s, 61 in the 2020s

Artists who got their first No. 1 in the 2020s waited a median of 61 weeks. That’s longer than in the 1990s (40 weeks) and the 2000s (38 weeks), and close to the 2010s (70 weeks).

The 1960s are the outlier. The typical first-time No. 1 artist of that decade got there within two months of their first entry, and nearly three in four did it within a year. In the 1980s the wait peaked at 96 weeks.

Today, 41% of first-time No. 1 artists get there within a year. In the 1990s and 2000s it was more than half.

One in five waited five years or more

Of the 37 artists who reached No. 1 for the first time this decade, 15 did it within a year, 15 took one to five years, and 7 waited five years or more.

Hozier is one of the seven. “Take Me To Church” entered the chart in 2014 and peaked at No. 2. His first No. 1, “Too Sweet,” came in April 2024, nearly 10 years later. SZA waited almost six years, from “Love Galore” in 2017 to “Kill Bill” in 2023. Sabrina Carpenter’s first entry was in 2021, and her first No. 1, “Please Please Please,” came in 2024.

That one in five is not a record. In the 1980s, 29% of first-time No. 1 artists had waited five years or more, and in the 2010s it was 25%. The long road has always been there.

The longest roads

The longest waits for a first No. 1: Santana 30 years, Aerosmith 25, Patti LaBelle 23, Bill Medley 19, Billy Vera 19

Santana holds the record. The band’s first Hot 100 entry was in 1969, and its first No. 1, “Smooth” with Rob Thomas, came 30 years later, in 1999. Aerosmith waited 25 years for “I Don’t Want To Miss A Thing,” and Patti LaBelle 23 for “On My Own.”

Straight to the top

At the other end, only eight artists have reached No. 1 with their very first Hot 100 entry as lead artist. Three came from American Idol: Clay Aiken, Fantasia and Carrie Underwood. Two had charted before in groups: Lauryn Hill with the Fugees and Zayn with One Direction. The others are Baauer’s “Harlem Shake,” The Scotts (Travis Scott and Kid Cudi) and Oliver Anthony Music.

Most artists take the long way. A first hit that charts high doesn’t guarantee a No. 1, and the wait is about as long now as it has been for most of the chart’s history.

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